Ninety percent of the nation's economists surveyed this week predict the recession will end in 2009, but local economists say Long Island might have a tougher time getting out.

Long Island Association economist Pearl Kamer says the economy is on the mend nationally, but it?s still a bumpy road for Long Island. The Island?s unemployment rate is now in the high 6 percent range, but could go to 8 percent sometime next year. Housing prices could still drop another 10 percent and banks are still tight with credit, Kamer says.

"Long Island, which traditionally and historically has led the nation coming out of recession, is probably going to lag the nation coming out of recession this time around,? Kamer tells News 12 Long Island.

The latest surveys show consumer confidence on the rise, but that doesn't necessarily translate into more consumer spending. Many Long Islanders say they?re still cautious when it comes to their wallets.

Furniture repairman Joe Perrone, of Islip Terrace, says he doesn't take vacation or eat out and watches his grocery bills.

"I don't buy as much as I used to, I don't eat as much as I used to, ? Perrone says.

Instead of 2009, Kamer forecasts Long Island will pull out of the recession in late 2010. She also predicts the recession will transform the Island?s economy from being driven by consumer spending and housing to green technology, alterative energy and infrastructure spending.