LIFORECAST

Yeah. And there's a guy in there that will talk your ear off about the history of the whole thing. It's, I forgot his name. He's a really nice guy though. If you go into the store, I remember the first time I saw it. It was so exciting. You see pictures of it and hear about it. Gotta get the kids there too. So, uh, lots of holiday fun around Long Island. Unfortunately, tomorrow, the weather is not going to be so great for that, but we'll get look outside right now. We do have some wet weather around. It's mostly rain. Uh, you might see a couple wet snow flakes in the mix, but things are drying out a little bit and most of the snow right now is north and west. We have a gusty southwest wind. That's a warm wind for us. So, again, not much in the way of that wintry weather, but it will feel like winter tomorrow afternoon in the morning. We're in the thirties. Look at the afternoon down to 34 and it feels much colder than that with the strong winds that are coming in for much of the day. We have a wind advisory in effect all day long winds, 20 to 25 MPH, seeing gusts here and there about 40 to 50 MPH. Some of the stronger gusts could be around the east end on the North Fork, places like Laurel Mattituck to Jamesport as well. So keep that in mind tomorrow in the morning, this is what it's going to feel like when you head out. 31 in Glen Cove, it's breezy, 33 in Medford. See those numbers going down through the day in the afternoon. It feels like the twenties. So bundle up when you head out the door in the morning, especially late in the evening overnight to Friday morning, feeling like the teens Friday will be the coldest day of the stretch and then a little warm up. So tonight we have the rain showers again, maybe a little bit of wet snow mixing in on the north shore, but there's also some dry air around keeping most of the showers two hour east. This is 7 to 8 o'clock uh tomorrow morning and the rain is moving out. It's gonna be all about those gusty winds and the cold weather for your afternoon. Friday is cold, but at least it's bright. It's gonna be pretty windy here across the stretch. Just wanna show you again that any light snowfall accumulations will be northwest of Long Island. Check out this golden sunset. So pretty. What a neat photo from dawn in Northport. Thank you so much for sending that in. Uh We will get some better sunsets ahead after tomorrow, Friday's cold but the weekend up into the forties and look at early next week, we're in the fifties tracking some rain showers.

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We're tracking a few storms through the month, but will it be cold enough for a White Christmas? Here's an early look. 

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STORM WATCH: The outlook for December is stormy. Here is an early look

PARADE OF STORMS

We're on storm watch for Thursday. We have rain and then snow showers and a lot of wind. But there is more weather on the way. So this first storm passes through actually kind of weak because the low pressure is all the way up in Canada and it gives us windy and cold weather behind it. That's gonna probably be the biggest issue is the wind but also some snow squalls too. But a parade of storms is on the way. We have much warmer weather next week. So all rain with the second storm and possibly another storm right behind it. This third storm could be even stronger, but we just don't have the details yet regardless. Here's the thing. Yes, we have more storms, but we do have more warm weather coming through at least the middle of the month and it's all because of the polar vortex. So what you're seeing here is the North Pole, we're down here, the branch of cold air from this polar vortex. You see the low pressure system is going to start pulling away into Asia next week. So it's going to allow some warmer weather, but stormier weather to come in. You see these little ripples, each one is an opportunity for a storm system to ride up along it. So this is next Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, you see that polar vortex builds over Russia and kind of stays away from our pocket of the world, at least for a while. But you move into next weekend. Look at this, we do have some more storm systems coming in of the west coast of the United States. So that does bring us into Christmas week before. You know it, historically, the odds of a white Christmas at least an inch of snow on the ground is very low for New York City, Long Island. Most of New Jersey, that risk is 10% or less once you get north of 287 now you start getting into a 20 to 30 or even better chance of a white Christmas, which means snow either falling or on the ground, but it's been a long time. So that's climatologically. Those are your odds of seeing a white Christmas. But the last time we actually did it in Bridgeport, Connecticut, we had a trace of snow on the ground back in 2021 for I slip. It has been 10 years. You have to go back to 2013. It's been 15 years for the rest of us, Newark JFK Central Park. Last time those observation stations recorded a white Christmas was 2009 this year. Yes, we do have a decent chance for at least one storm system to push through the country on Christmas week. But the odds of temperatures being below average is looking less likely. So if we do see a storm system, it could be rain, but we still have some time to track it. The odds are not in our favor.

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Just like last winter, expect a warm winter overall. Temperatures will run about two degrees above average from December through February. 

Winter Weather

Winter Weather Outlook: How will this upcoming winter shape up?

AllanNosoffWinterOulookDAYTHREE3

It is finally time for our winter outlook for 2024 and 2025. I'm storm watch team meteorologist Sala Nose, and it is going to be a warm winter overall, especially in New York City where it's gonna run about two degrees above average. And that includes some cold shots. That's gonna be really important because if we can time cold with a storm that will produce snow. Overall, I expect precipitation be near average based on what we've seen with the weak La Nina as well as the analogs that I crunched earlier about 11 inches in total for December through February. But how about snowfall? Unfortunately, for snow lovers, it's another below average winter, but better than last year, which only had single digit inches of snow. I'm expecting about 21 inches of snow across New York City and this is how it shapes up across the entire tri state area. About 18 to 24 inches along I 78 including the city, less as you get to the coast because there will be mixing concerns a lot of the time and more rain so than snow north and west, of course, is where you'll find the higher totals. But in some of the higher elevations of the Hudson Valley usually get about 70 80 90 inches of snow. I don't expect that much, but at least it'll be an improvement for ski country compared to last winter. So that's where we stand now. And if you're a fan of snow or not, you can check out the full winter outlook on news, twelve.com following us on news, 12 social pages as well as mine and let us know if you're a fan of winter or not. I'm Star watch team meteorologist, Alan Nose.

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If you’re heading to the parade, grab a winter coat, umbrella and rain boots.

Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade

Storm Watch: Will the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade be a washout? 

HOPE THANKSGIVING 1126

I meteorologist. Hope with your Thanksgiving parade forecast, we're only two days away until Thanksgiving. A lot of traveling. A lot of people getting excited for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. But how's the weather looking as of right now? We're forecasting gusty winds between 15 to 20 MPH and the parade starts around 830. So the threshold for the balloons not to go up is if it exceeds 34. So it's something that will continue to monitor as we get through the next couple of days. But a breezy feel. But how are the temperatures? How's the sky conditions looking? Unfortunately, you will need your umbrellas. If you're heading there. And the parade route starts on 77 street in Central Park West. You'll be dodging a few raindrops, some light showers, chilly temperatures in the mid forties. Make sure that you have that heavier jacket on. Even by the end of the parade, the rain can start picking up in intensity. It's something that you need to keep in mind if you're heading to the parade. A meteorologist, hope which your foras happy Thanksgiving. All right.

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Fall 2024 in the tri-state area has been one of the warmest on record and one of the driest.

Winter Weather Outlook: How analyzing previous patterns helps forecast winter weather

AllanNosoffWinterOulookDAYTWO2

I'm Storm Watch team, meteorologist Sala Nose and we looked at El Nino, La Nina, how that could impact our winter ahead. But one of the other keys is actually looking to the past at something known as analogs, which are previous years with similar weather patterns to the one we're dealing with this year. And out of all the data at New York City Central Park, I found 23 different years between 1869 and 2023 with similar conditions to what we're dealing with this fall, which include a very warm fall well above average temperatures. One of the driest falls on record way below average rainfall and a weak La Nina very weak overall. And these three keys added all together with all of our data resulted in this month by month, about average when it comes to snowfall in December, a little bit below average in January and quite a bit below average in February. So what does this mean overall for a potential winter outlook below average snowfall? Sure. But at least it's snowier than last winter, which was such a dud usually February is the snowiest month for us, but this time. Looks like January will be. Some analogs had huge snowstorms. Others did not at all. So, it all depends on that big storm and we'll have that full winter outlook right here tomorrow.

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