The National Hurricane Center is watching for the development of a tropical wave that could form as a Tropical Depression as early as Sunday along the west coast of Florida. This storm is expected to bring flooding rain to Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba over the weekend where it organizes into a tropical cyclone.

The track of this storm is quite uncertain at this time as intensity and organization/identification of the storm’s center will matter with its forecast. This could have impacts on our weather forecast for the Thursday, Friday, and Saturday timeframe of next week. Currently the two scenarios at stake are for (1) Stronger storm or (2) Weaker storm.

If the storm is strong, then it will jump back into the Atlantic Ocean by passing through Florida - following along the east coast where it will be offshore between Bermuda and New Jersey on Thursday night and Friday. This outcome would leave the storm out to the open ocean without direct impact to land other than increased swells and rip currents along the beaches for the end of next week. Local weather would remain mostly sunny with thin clouds.

If the storm is weak, then it will dwell over Florida and the southeast coast for a longer period. It moves slower and some of its energy can be pushed along the East Coast, dousing torrential rain from Florida to New Jersey, New York City, and even parts of New England for Thursday night and Friday. Local weather would be impacted with tropical downpours, flooding, coastal erosion, and strong gusts.

This forecast is expected to evolve and change over the course of the weekend as the specifics won’t be quite understood until an organized cyclone has officially formed.