A major Nor'easter is expected to sit just off the coast on Sunday and Monday. Travel impacts are expected from the combination of snow and wind, particularly along the coast.

As of our early Friday morning forecast, we expect a moderate snow event with at least 3" for South Jersey, the Jersey Shore, and Long Island, particularly Suffolk County. There is a risk for up to 6" in these areas and perhaps more. However, the forecast confidence is lower than usual.

At this time, South Jersey is at highest risk for an impactful snowstorm. There is a risk for plowable snow across the entire tri-state area, but the confidence that this will happen is lower than typical for the rest of the area.

Scattered snow is expected ahead of the storm Saturday night into Sunday morning across the tri-state. Minor snow accumulations are possible by the end of the morning on Sunday.

Steadier snowfall will move in from the south Sunday afternoon in New Jersey and Sunday evening for the rest of the tri-state. The greatest risk for snow will likely be Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Snow showers will dissipate throughout Monday morning.

The duration of the snow will be significantly reduced if the storm takes a path that is farther out to sea.

The forecast confidence is lower than usual with this storm because the computer models do not have any consistency among each other. These computer models update every 6 hours (4 times a day.) Below is an example of the model discrepancy.

The NAM Model, which has been reliable for us this winter, is the only model that projects little to no snow for most of the tri-state. Notice the heavy snow lies south with this model and there is a very sharp cutoff.

The EURO Model, which is a historically reliable model for us, projects a more realistic moderate snow event for many of us and brings the threat for higher totals along the coast.