Expect this week to be one of the wettest weeks in 2024 so far, and the remnants of Debby could push it into the record books.
The exact impacts will depend on how long Debby stalls out over the record-warm ocean water of the Atlantic in the next 48 hours, and how quickly it moves up the East Coast by this weekend.
There are multiple scenarios on the table right now when it comes to Debby’s path, depending on its track and timing. This uncertainty is seen in the National Hurricane Center’s "cone of uncertainty."
If the storm follows the center of the cone, like Scenario No. 1, that would be a worst-case scenario for the city.
The highest rainfall totals and the highest threat of flooding would likely occur, mainly Friday and Saturday. If the storm follows the eastern or western edge of the cone, Scenarios No. 2 or No. 3, the impacts would not be as extreme, but some rain and minor flooding is still possible.
Some of our latest computer guidance has suggested extreme rainfall totals that could rival previous tropical systems, like the remnants of Ophelia last year and the remnants of Hurricane Ida in 2021. That includes the European model that has consistently predicted between 4 and 10 inches of rain, which is in the realm of possibility. Other computer models are somewhere between a manageable inch or two, to as much as 12 inches, which could cause significant disruptions and damage.
Regardless of specific rain and flood forecasts, it is important to be prepared and get a flood plan ready. In some neighborhoods, it only takes a couple of inches of rain to fall in a short amount of time to flood basements and first floors of buildings.
As of now, our forecast calls for 3 to 6 or more inches of rain, which is enough to cause significant flooding for parts of the area. There are still several days to track the exact details and any changes to the forecast. It is important to stay tuned to our forecast on-air, online and on the free News 12 app.