Inflation could keep holiday spending down this year, but retail analysts say less fear of COVID-19 should keep retailers afloat and customers buying.

Chief Retail Analyst for The NDP Group Marshal Cohen says if people are socializing more, there is a chance we could actually see an increase of gifts.

"It's after COVID so we have more individuals that are coming in from all over the United States so you wind up spending a lot more with kids," says Bill Edwards, of Syosset.

Cohen says self-gifting could be on the decline because of money issues.

"The impulse purchase, the 'If I'm going to buy my brother a sweater, I buy one for myself,' Cohen says "That's the piece that could be missing."

He says that could cost growth for retailers this holdiay season.

Amazon are announcing layoffs ahead of the holidays and FedEx is furloughing works as cargo demands less.

Cohen says this is likely to do with people feeling more comfortable shopping in person.

"This year is the first time in our holiday survey where we saw online sales actually expected to decrease the first time in 18 years," Cohen says.

He says he expects Black Friday to be a busy shopping days and stores to be crowded.