The winter weather watches that were in effect on Thursday were to encourage you to prepare for the upcoming storm. The warning, on a basic level, means we are going to put that preparation to use. Snow, sleet and ice are all expected with this storm and will create extremely difficult travel situations.

But before we talk about snow, we have to tell you about some extreme cold tonight into Saturday. The National Weather Service has issued a cold weather advisory for all 21 counties in the state. Temperatures tonight will plummet to the single digits and very low teens. Gusty winds will make it feel much, much colder. Expect windchill values to range from zero to 10 below.

The cold is a perfect environment for snow to develop, and we won't have to wait too long before a sizeable winter event steers moisture through the region. Just after midnight on Saturday, flurries begin to fall. The intensity of the snow will increase in the overnight hours, and snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches an hour can be expected. You will be waking up on Sunday morning in a snow globe. Snow will pile up quickly.

Bands of snow will continue for the majority of the day and snow will continue to collect. This could be the biggest one-day snow total in 10 years. Atmospheric changes begin around lunchtime. The snow in areas, especially along the Shore and in southern areas of the state, will begin to change over. First to sleet, then unfortunately, to freezing rain. This messy wintry concoction will just make getting around or attempting to get around that much more complicated.

It will cut down on the amount of snow that collects, but it will also be a heavier, wetter wintry mix that will cling to everything and be very heavy and much harder to clean up. I would suggest, if you can and are able, to clean up as much and as often, early on Sunday. This will limit the stress put on the body while trying to clean up.

The attached snow map is for preparation purposes. This is going to continue to change as the storm continues to evolve. From Mercer to Middlesex and Monmouth counties, a solid snowfall is expected. The numbers will waffle either higher or lower based on when the changeover happens. If the changeover happens later in the day, that would mean it would be snowing longer, and you'll be on the higher end of snow totals. If the changeover happens sooner, then snow totals will be lower. But, as I mentioned earlier in this post, the better prepared you are, and the periodic cleaning you do early on, will help out later in the day.

Northern New Jersey is stuck with the colder air for longer, if not the entire duration of the storm. The issue with accumulations here would be if, in fact, the change over reaches that far north as some of our higher resolution guidance is suggesting it will, and if there is some drier air that will shut down the snow earlier than predicted. This storm is far from finished when it comes to being forecasted.

Please stay with News 12 New Jersey and the Storm Watch Team of meteorologists guiding you step by step with this complicated winter storm. I hope you are all well, healthy and staying safe. Stay tuned.

~Dave