This January could be the driest on record for Long Island
Are changes on the way for February? Let's take a look!
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This winter has been one of the coldest and, as of recently, one of driest in years. We started the season with a severe drought. Those conditions improved after steady precipitation in December, but now we're losing that progress. January has been remarkably dry. Believe it or not, winter is almost over, but late winter can be very active on Long Island. Historically it's where we see our biggest snow, but how are things shaping up this year?
A look back
December 2024 was our coldest since 2017, that's 7 years ago! Compared to what we're used to, the cold was brutal, but let's not get carried away. Temperatures were only 0.9F below the climate normal for December. That's about where you'd expect for the month of December historically. but we've had a string of mild early winter weather the past decade.
December 2024 was the snowiest in 4 years with a (very modest) 2.1 inches for the month. Compared to average, December was below normal.
January 2025 so far is on track to be the driest on record. We managed to get one 2.7 inches snow this week, but the average for this point in the month is 7.1 inches and the average for this point in the season is nearly a foot of snow. January 2025 has been a colder than average. January is running about 2 degrees below average. We haven't seen any historic winter weather (that honor goes to the deep south), but compared to the past few, January 2025 has had a lot more sustained cold.
This week, Islip had morning temperatures in the single digits on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. That three days stretch is our longest below 10F in the morning since 2016. The all-time record was 10 days in a row during the winter of 1979.
What's next?
It's difficult to predict specific weather conditions more than about 4 days out in the wintertime because the storm track is much more active than the rest of the year. However, we can get a general idea of how things are going to average out.
I'm anticipating February to bring less brutal cold than we've seen, and the start of the month looks quite mild. Overall, precipitation looks near normal for the month. Although this could fall as rain instead of snow, February is historically where we see our best chances for big snow. It looks like this February will feature the best chance for snow we've seen this season on the island, although right now conditions do not look favorable for large snowstorms in February on Long Island.
