Late winter often brings our BIG snow to Long Island
Spring is around the corner, but it's not too late to see a big snowstorm before we get there.
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The days are getting longer, and the temperatures are starting to get warmer (or at least not too much colder). You would think that the worst of winter weather would be behind us, but it’s just the opposite in our area!
Our biggest snowstorms come from coastal storms, called nor’easters, and they are fueled by the fusion of cold and warm airmasses. The battle between winter and spring actually makes the storm track more active, and we've seen that the past week or two with several storms in a single week. The jet stream dictates where storms go and fuels these storms along with the relatively warm Atlantic water.
Why haven’t we had a big snowstorm this winter?
January was colder than normal and a lot drier. The storm track was tucked so far south that it brought historic snow to the Gulf Coast. Louisiana had their first Blizzard warning on record and temperatures dropped to near 0 degrees right down to the coast.
February has brought the jet stream, and thus the storm track, farther north and closer to our area. Temperatures haven't been as cold, and it's been stormier. Why haven't we seen a big storm yet? We're seeing frequent waves of smaller storms so there isn't enough energy for a storm to "bomb out" and develop into a true nor'easter.
Next week could be our best chance for snow this month
Historically, mid February is a very active part of the month for big snowstorms. Earlier in the winter cold and dry arctic air nudges storms southward but in mid-February if the timing is right, intense snow can (and often does) happen! On the south side, the storms ingest a lot of warm air and they can become so large that they manufacture their own cold air on the backside! So it really doesn’t have to be very cold for big snowstorms.
Signs to look out for?
A big storm usually comes together with a few ingredients in place:
A smaller, warmer storm a few days prior
A push of cold & dry air that lasts a few days
A storm that rapidly intensifies right off the coast
It’s been three years since our last blizzard on Long Island, but over the past few decades big snowstorms have become more common on the island.
